By Eamonn Ryan
At the 2025 GCCA Africa Cold Chain Conference, a discussion unfolded around US–South Africa trade relations.
In a session that veered from the technical cold chain conversations into the geopolitical, Michelle Constant, CEO of the American Chamber of Commerce in South Africa, offered insight into the challenges, strategies and shifting power dynamics affecting not only cold chain logistics but the broader HVAC&R and agri-logistics sectors that depend on stable international trade flows.
The American Chamber of Commerce in South Africa, as she clarified, is not an arm of the US government or the American embassy. Rather, it is a South African organisation representing approximately 200 member companies, including major American corporations, South African banks, law firms and stakeholders with US trade interests. But the headline was stark: the number of American companies operating in South Africa has dropped from over 600 to 500 in just five years – a red flag for the local economy and international business confidence.
Constant said: “This decline, reflects both domestic concerns and global uncertainty. With political volatility, economic unpredictability and shifting diplomatic alliances, companies are pulling back, reassessing risk, and, in some cases, exiting.”
‘Trade, not aid’ heralds new era of US foreign policy
The dominant theme of Constant’s presentation was the transactional nature of modern geopolitics. The long-standing idealism that often accompanied US trade and aid policy has been replaced with a much colder logic: ‘Trade, not aid’. This, she explained, signals a demand for measurable returns on engagement, especially from the US.
South Africa, meanwhile, faces an internal identity crisis. With fragmented communication across government departments – particularly between DIRCO (Department of International Relations and Cooperation) and GCIS (Government Communication and Information System) – foreign policy is inconsistent at best.
These dynamics are further complicated by global realignments. Constant noted a worrying trend: the downgrading or elimination of senior US diplomatic and commercial roles on the African continent, including within South Africa. At the time of her talk, no US ambassador had yet been appointed and only a chargé d’affaires was in place – a notable absence as economic and trade tensions rise.
One of the key concerns facing American companies – and by extension local industries like HVAC&R and cold chain logistics – is the sudden imposition of tariffs and trade barriers. As Constant pointed out, the average tariff rate for African exports to the US pre-2025 was just 2.2%. That has changed dramatically in recent months [and may change again before publication].
In response, the chamber is undertaking research to calculate not just the value American companies bring to South Africa, but also what value they offer back to the US economy. This shift in perspective is a strategic attempt to maintain relevance and leverage in ongoing tariff discussions.
Additionally, the infrastructure crisis at South Africa’s ports and railways, and the growing importance of trade corridors such as the Lobito Corridor (through Angola), were highlighted. “If we don’t get our own ports in order, we risk being bypassed,” Constant warned. For cold chain operators reliant on seamless, temperature-controlled export routes, this warning could not be more urgent.
Yet opportunities do exist. The Africa Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), for instance, was flagged as a promising platform for South Africa to reposition itself within a regional trading bloc. “If you’re going to be actively non-aligned, it’s far more effective to do so as part of a trading bloc than alone.”
This raises new strategic pathways for the HVAC&R and cold chain industries. Could enhanced regional integration offer insulation from bilateral turbulence? Could cold chain infrastructure projects attract pan-African investment and public-private partnerships?