By Eamonn Ryan
At the 2025 GCCA Africa Cold Chain Conference, US–South Africa trade relations were a top subject.
Amid the uncertainties, Michelle Constant, CEO of the American Chamber of Commerce in South Africa stressed two imperatives: scenario planning and risk mitigation. Quoting insights from a recent Citibank Treasury roundtable, she warned, “If you think you’ve hit rock bottom with your scenario planning, go further. Because the lift goes down to the basement.”
These recommendations aren’t just philosophical – they’re operational. Companies must:
- Prepare for multi-polar global dynamics (US, China, EU, BRICS)
- Build sector-specific resilience plans, especially in logistics and cold chain
- Explore localisation and beneficiation strategies to reduce reliance on imports
- Engage proactively in regional trade discussions and compliance protocols
The DTIC’s export support desk and the US-Africa trade desk were flagged as resources worth engaging with, particularly for companies struggling to navigate new compliance and tariff landscapes.
While much of Constant’s commentary was political, the relevance to the HVAC&R industry, and cold chain logistics in particular, was clear.
As the sector becomes increasingly tied to global pharmaceutical, agricultural and perishable goods markets, political risk becomes operational risk. Any disruption in trade routes, tariffs, port operations or energy policy directly affects everything from cold storage design to refrigerant sourcing to cross-border transport.
Moreover, as the American Chamber begins research into the pharmaceutical supply chain, Constant invited cold chain operators to contribute insights. The interface between health logistics and refrigeration technology is rapidly expanding, and represents a critical area for local innovation and international cooperation.
Constant’s presentation was both sobering and galvanising. With bilateral relations between South Africa and the US at “an all-time low”, and the rules of global trade being rewritten in real-time, companies must embrace strategic agility.
“For HVAC&R professionals and cold chain leaders, the message is clear: geopolitics is no longer someone else’s problem. Infrastructure, trade policy, international diplomacy – all are now part of your operating environment.”
Adapt, engage and plan for every scenario – because the future isn’t cooling down anytime soon.
Key takeaways for the HVAC&R and cold chain sector:
- Decline in US companies in South Africa is a red flag for investor confidence
- Tariff increases could severely impact refrigeration equipment and pharmaceutical exports
- Infrastructure bottlenecks, especially at ports, risk sidelining South Africa from key corridors
- Regional integration via AfCFTA may offer resilience and new market access
- Contribute to chamber-led research on pharma supply chains to influence policy and unlock growth