By Eamonn Ryan
South Africa’s agricultural sector is heading into the 2025/6 season on a wave of optimism.
Weather forecasts, rising farmer confidence and strong machinery sales all point to a favourable production cycle and, by extension, a season of renewed growth and demand across the cold chain.
While the past few months have been relatively quiet, preparations are intensifying ahead of the new summer planting season. Farmers are expected to begin land preparation in mid-October, with harvests for crops such as table grapes and early vegetables to follow in late November. According to agricultural economist Wandile Sihlobo, writing in Daily Maverick, this interlude provides a useful vantage point to evaluate what lies ahead, and the outlook is notably positive.
Weather prospects support production and cold chain throughput
The 2024/5 season closed on a strong note, supported by favourable La Niña-induced rainfall that boosted crop and fruit yields as well as grazing conditions. Climate projections now suggest a moderate probability of continued La Niña patterns through early 2026, a scenario that typically brings above-normal rainfall to southern Africa.
If realised, this will be the second consecutive La Niña season, supporting robust production across grains, oilseeds, fruit and vegetables. For cold chain stakeholders, that translates directly into increased handling volumes, higher utilisation of packhouses and cold stores, and a steadier flow of fresh produce for domestic and export markets.
Sihlobo points out that in recent years, prolonged La Niña cycles have allowed the sector to sustain production momentum over multiple seasons. Such consistency is critical for planning investment in cold storage infrastructure, fleet capacity and energy-efficient refrigeration systems. Reliable throughput also strengthens the case for expanding integrated cold logistics to rural producing areas.
Machinery sales signal confidence
One of the clearest indicators of optimism in the sector is the sustained growth in tractor sales, which have risen for eight consecutive months. August data showed sales up 22% year-on-year, with around 700 units sold.
This trend suggests that producers are preparing aggressively for the upcoming planting window. It also reflects broader confidence – not just in expected yields but in the ability of supply chains to absorb and distribute those outputs efficiently. As Sihlobo observes, lower interest rates compared with 2024 have further stimulated investment in on-farm machinery and mechanisation.
For the cold chain, rising machinery sales often precede higher downstream demand. A productive agricultural cycle brings greater pressure on pre-cooling facilities, reefer transport and distribution cold stores – especially during peak harvest windows for perishable crops such as grapes, citrus, avocados and berries.
Input costs remain a key variable
Despite this positive sentiment, high input costs continue to cast a shadow over farm-level profitability. Fertiliser prices were up by more than 10% in August 2025 compared with a year earlier, a reflection of ongoing global supply constraints.
Producers will therefore remain cautious in their crop selection and planting intensity – but the combination of favourable weather, improved soil moisture and renewed investment momentum should still underpin a strong overall season.
Cold chain outlook: steady expansion likely
A positive agricultural season has a multiplier effect through the cold chain, driving utilisation, capital expenditure and innovation. With both horticulture and grain sectors expected to perform well, cold logistics providers are likely to experience higher demand for temperature-controlled handling, storage and transport services from early summer into 2026.
As Sihlobo’s analysis implies, this alignment of climate, capital and confidence provides South Africa’s agricultural value chain – and particularly its cold chain infrastructure – with a much-needed opportunity to consolidate gains and prepare for sustained growth.