Edited by Eamonn Ryan
The vast agricultural potential of the African continent, a key theme at Standard Bank Business and Commercial Banking’s Africa Unlocked Conference 2025, is facing new complexities. This is Part 1 of a two-part series.
While the continent eyes robust growth, recent trade actions from the US have introduced a significant challenge for South African farmers, particularly those in high-value export sectors.
During a prominent panel discussion at the leading Pan-African event, which convenes business leaders and policymakers to chart the continent’s economic future, concerns were sharply raised over the imposition of new US tariffs. On Monday, July 7, US President Donald Trump followed through on earlier threats, announcing a 30% tariff on “any and all South African products sent into the United States,” effective August 1, unless a new trade agreement is reached. While vehicle exports, steel and aluminum are expected to bear the brunt, agricultural products, previously enjoying duty-free access, will now also face this substantial levy.
A targeted blow to key agricultural sectors
Louw Pienaar, a senior analyst at the Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy (BFAP), acknowledged that South Africa’s overall agricultural exposure to the US market is relatively limited, accounting for approximately 4% of total exports. However, he cautioned that the repercussions for specific sectors and provinces could be severe.
“If you can’t export to the US at a 30% tariff, where will you go?” Pienaar queried during a panel exploring agriculture’s broader role in Africa. He highlighted citrus as a prime example: “If you move citrus from the US, which is a premium market, then it might mean that prices will fall [elsewhere].” This sentiment was echoed by other panellists, including Francois Rossouw, MD of Mooigezicht Estates, a major table grape producer, and Louis van Ravesteyn, head of agribusiness at Standard Bank.
The financial burden of these tariffs remains a point of contention. Pienaar noted the uncertainty surrounding who will ultimately absorb the cost. “Nobody is sure who exactly will pay the tariff. Will it be the end consumer? Will it be South African producers? Or will the value chain absorb that?” He suggested a likely distribution, where “if demand is strong enough, the US retailer will pay that. If there’s pushback, it will have to change.”