By Eamonn Ryan
South Africa’s record USD15.1-billion agricultural export performance in 2025 is not just a milestone for farmers – it is a powerful signal for the country’s cold chain industry. This is part one of a two-part series.
Strong harvests in grains, oilseeds, fruit and vegetables have translated into higher volumes moving through packhouses, cold storage facilities, refrigerated transport networks and export terminals.
However, while volumes and prices have boosted throughput across the cold chain, tariff pressures in the US and shifting global trade dynamics could reshape export flows in 2026 – with direct implications for storage demand, reefer capacity and port operations.
Speaking on a Business Day podcast, Wandile Sihlobo, chief economist at the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa (Agbiz), said the sector’s performance was driven by both production gains and pricing strength.
“I would say it’s the two – the large volumes as well as the better commodity prices. If you think about 2025, it was one of the La Niña rain years where we had an ample grain and oilseeds harvest, and we also did well in fruit and vegetables,” Sihlobo said.
He said healthy global demand and improved logistics also supported exports. “The volumes were healthy, but also the demand out there in the world has been fairly strong, and the logistics were much smoother than in the past.”
Africa anchors export stability
The African continent remained South Africa’s largest agricultural export destination, accounting for more than half of total exports.
“The African continent has always been the major driver,” Sihlobo said, noting that the Middle East, Asia and the EU remain important secondary markets, while the UK accounts for about 7% to 8% of exports.
For the cold chain, regional trade stability provides predictable flows for temperature-controlled goods such as fruit, vegetables, meat and dairy – cushioning the sector from volatility in more distant markets.
US market volatility hits late-year exports
Despite total exports to the US reaching roughly USD500-million in 2025 – down only 3% year-on-year – quarterly data tells a different story. Exporters front-loaded shipments during a 90-day tariff pause, particularly citrus during peak harvest. But exports later declined sharply.
“In the third quarter our farming exports fell 11%, and in the fourth quarter they fell 39%. In fact, they were the lowest in value terms: about USD81-million,” Sihlobo said. Many agricultural products still face 30% tariffs. While some citrus, fruit juices and nuts received exemptions, most of the export basket remains affected.
“If you are running a business and you are looking at 33% and 30%, it doesn’t make that much of a difference,” he said.
For cold chain operators, softer US demand in 2026 could mean reallocation of refrigerated capacity toward alternative markets, especially Africa and Asia. “Our preference is that a sweet spot in terms of tariffs would be anything between 10% and 15%. With the current 30% tariffs, it’s making life very difficult for many,” Wandile said.
Port efficiencies bolster throughput
Improved port performance has been critical to managing higher export volumes. Following severe disruptions that cost the fruit industry an estimated R350-million, operational improvements are now visible.
“The lesson has been learned. The machinery and equipment are there, and the necessary improvements are underway,” Sihlobo said. He noted gains at ports in the Eastern Cape and KwaZulu-Natal, supported by private sector collaboration with Transnet.
“When we talk about this excellent performance of agriculture, it’s actually on the basis of that very same point – that the ports are performing better than in the past,” he said. For the cold chain, sustained port efficiency is essential: temperature-sensitive exports depend on seamless transitions between cold storage, trucking and vessel loading.
South Africa’s cold chain sector stands stronger – but must remain agile as global trade dynamics evolve.