By Eamonn Ryan
This is part two of a two-part series. Continuing the discussion, the Department of Transport argues that the National Rail Master Plan represents not just infrastructure reform, but a critical intervention in South Africa’s broader freight system – one that has direct implications for export cold chain stability and national competitiveness.
DOT chief director Jan-David de Villiers said rail turnover represents less than 0.1% of GDP today, compared to more than 4% in 1910. He said the NRMP identifies a massive “performance gap” where the viable rail market is estimated at 262 million tonnes of freight, far exceeding the 150 million tonnes actually transported in 2022.
De Villiers said in monetary terms just 4%, or R276-billion, of market share of goods is currently being moved by rail, while a market share of R5.8-trillion was being transported by roads. “We are saying of that R5.8-trillion market share, 17% (R1.04-trillion), should be on rail,” he said.
However, he said it was not currently moved by rail because of the lack reliability and speed of present services.
For cold chain operators, this reliability gap is particularly significant: inconsistent transit times make it difficult to guarantee stable temperature control across long distances, forcing greater reliance on refrigerated trucking fleets and increasing energy and compliance costs.
De Villiers said successfully closing this gap could reduce the national freight bill by up to R100-billion.
To address the infrastructure deficit, he said the plan requires investment of R1.9-trillion over thirty years. The strategy includes a proposed 5 380km reduction in the size of the existing network to focus resources on high-volume “precision” corridors. In practical cold chain terms, these corridors are seen as potential backbone routes for high-frequency refrigerated freight trains linking production zones to ports with fewer handling points and reduced exposure to temperature breaks.
The plan will also include the drafting of laws such as the National Rail Bill by 2026/27 for enactment by 2028.
Johanna Mulaudzi, an infrastructure regulation expert and former Transnet National Ports Authority CEO, welcomed the move toward open access but warned of the risks of deregulation. “Liberalisation without regulation or regulatory certainty creates unintended consequences,” she said, arguing that success depends on “corridor integration” that addresses pricing and terminal access.
Transport specialist Logan Moodley raised concerns regarding the operational feasibility of the plan, specifically the balance between capital and operational expenditure (Opex).
“My concern is more with the Opex … unless the private sector is coming and providing all of the Opex, including the Opex for the for the current assets, that the state owns, they’re going to be looking at government to provide security,” Moodley said.
He also questioned the apparent contradiction of continued massive road investment alongside the rail-first push. “It’s inconceivable for me that while we talk about rail, we see billions being spent on the N3 … if we’re serious about rail, we should have had some input in terms of the improvements to the N3 corridor, because it seems like it’s business as usual to anyone driving along the corridor,” Moodley said.
DOT Deputy Director General Ngwako Makaepea said the current rail network of 32 000km only sees “business on 30% of it”, making reconfiguration essential. He emphasised that the legislative shifts, anchored in the Economic Regulation of Transport Act of 2024, are about national survival.
For the citrus industry, that “national survival” framing increasingly extends into a cold chain imperative: without reliable rail corridors, the sector remains exposed to road congestion, rising costs, and temperature-control risk that directly threatens export viability.