By Eamonn Ryan
The following is derived from a SAPICS webinar titled ‘Pre G20 Summit – CRA and SAPICS Risk Briefing’ held on 12 November 2025. The panel consisted of Chris Hattingh, executive director, and Ofentse Donald Davhie, research associate – both of the Centre for Risk Analysis (CRA). This is part five of a five-part series.
South Africa’s upcoming G20 presidency represents a critical moment for the country to assert its influence on the global stage. The G20, comprising the world’s largest economies, serves as a forum for co-ordinating international economic policy, addressing global trade challenges and promoting financial stability. South Africa’s leadership comes at a time of heightened geopolitical uncertainty, rising protectionism and shifting alliances, providing both challenges and opportunities for strategic engagement.
One of the defining features of the current global landscape is the transactional nature of international relations. The US, for instance, has increasingly framed trade and diplomacy in terms of national security and strategic advantage. This approach introduces unpredictability, as countries face tariffs, sanctions or regulatory pressure based on perceived alignment with US interests. South Africa must navigate this environment carefully, leveraging diplomatic channels to maintain access to key markets while protecting domestic interests.
Diversification remains a central strategy. By engaging with multiple global partners – Europe, Asia, and the Americas – South Africa can reduce dependence on any single country and enhance resilience against geopolitical shocks. This strategy extends to trade, investment and development finance. By positioning itself as a reliable, predictable partner, South Africa strengthens its credibility and influence in multilateral forums such as the G20.
The G20 agenda provides an opportunity to highlight South Africa’s priorities. Key areas include enhancing disaster resilience, ensuring debt sustainability for low- and middle-income countries, and promoting inclusive economic growth. While the US may not attend in person or may exert disruptive influence, South Africa can still shape outcomes by engaging with other member states, aligning on shared objectives, and leveraging its presidency to promote African and emerging market perspectives.
Critical minerals and trade routes also feature prominently in South Africa’s strategic calculus. By highlighting the importance of southern Africa’s mineral wealth, including rare earths, PGMs and lithium, South Africa can position itself as a key partner in global supply chains. Similarly, emphasising the strategic value of the Cape route reinforces the country’s role as a resilient hub for global shipping, capable of mitigating disruptions caused by geopolitical instability elsewhere.
Domestically, South Africa’s ability to translate G20 engagement into tangible outcomes depends on addressing internal challenges. Infrastructure constraints, policy barriers and crime must be managed to create an environment conducive to trade, investment and industrial growth. Foreign policy alone cannot compensate for domestic weaknesses; alignment between internal reforms and international engagement is critical for success.
South Africa’s diplomatic approach is pragmatic. By combining strategic engagement with careful attention to optics, the country can navigate complex geopolitical dynamics. Gestures such as hosting leaders, facilitating bilateral meetings and demonstrating reliability in trade negotiations all contribute to building credibility and influence. At the same time, maintaining flexibility in responding to US-China tensions and other geopolitical pressures ensures that South Africa retains agency in shaping outcomes.
In conclusion, the G20 presidency offers South Africa an unparalleled platform to advance its economic and diplomatic agenda. By emphasising diversification, regional leadership, strategic resource management and resilient infrastructure, the country can strengthen its global influence and enhance economic growth. The coming year will test South Africa’s ability to balance domestic reforms, international engagement and strategic diplomacy, but the potential rewards – in terms of trade, investment and geopolitical influence – are substantial. Success will depend on vision, execution and the ability to leverage both regional and global partnerships effectively.