By Eamonn Ryan
The following is derived from a SAPICS webinar titled ‘Pre G20 Summit – CRA and SAPICS Risk Briefing’ held on 12 November 2025. The panel consisted of Chris Hattingh, executive director, and Ofentse Donald Davhie, research associate – both of the Centre for Risk Analysis (CRA). This is part three of a five-part series.
South Africa’s foreign policy in recent years has been defined by a proactive approach to navigating a rapidly shifting global environment. In a world characterised by geopolitical uncertainty, trade disruptions and rising protectionism, diversification of both trade partners and export markets has emerged as a central objective. President Cyril Ramaphosa and his cabinet have made significant efforts to travel extensively across Europe, Asia and the Americas to secure trade agreements and investment opportunities, emphasising the importance of building a resilient economic foundation that is less dependent on any single country or region.
The rationale behind this diversification strategy is straightforward. Global trade is increasingly volatile. The US, under different administrations, has demonstrated a willingness to use tariffs, sanctions and other economic tools to pursue geopolitical objectives. China, meanwhile, dominates critical supply chains and can shift its exports toward countries that provide favourable conditions. South Africa, by maintaining a broad portfolio of trade relationships, reduces the risk of being overly exposed to any one market while maximising opportunities for economic growth and investment.
This diversification strategy is not without its challenges. While South Africa is the largest investment attractor on the continent, domestic constraints – such as infrastructure bottlenecks, slow structural reforms and crime – pose significant hurdles. The effectiveness of foreign policy initiatives is inherently linked to the country’s ability to address these internal issues. For example, while the government may negotiate favourable trade agreements, foreign investors assess the operational realities on the ground, such as road and port efficiency, electricity reliability and the availability of skilled labour. Aligning domestic policy with foreign policy goals is therefore essential for realising the full potential of these diplomatic efforts.
One area of success has been the agricultural and manufacturing sectors. The Department of Agriculture, for instance, has actively pursued export market expansion, building relationships with the European Union and other partners who view South Africa as a reliable and predictable supplier. These efforts have enhanced South Africa’s reputation as a trading partner and opened up new avenues for revenue generation. However, the broader challenge remains: ensuring that alternative markets are ready and capable of absorbing South African exports, particularly in the face of fluctuating tariffs and protectionist measures from major economies like the US.
The unpredictability of US trade policy, particularly under leadership that favours transactional and optics-driven diplomacy, adds another layer of complexity. South Africa must navigate these uncertainties while leveraging opportunities for engagement. Sectors like mining and critical minerals are somewhat insulated due to exemptions and the strategic importance of these resources to the US economy. However, consumer goods and manufactured exports may face heightened competition from redirected Chinese exports, as high US tariffs incentivise China to seek alternative markets, including South Africa. Preparing for this influx is both a risk and an opportunity: South African businesses can benefit from new supply sources, but must also compete with low-cost imports.
Strategically, the government’s diplomatic playbook emphasises engagement, pragmatism and optics. For instance, gestures such as hosting high-profile visits, offering symbolic gifts or facilitating bilateral meetings are not merely ceremonial – they are tools for signalling goodwill, creating trust and opening channels for negotiation. In parallel, South Africa continues to strengthen multilateral relationships through participation in forums such as BRICS and the G20, ensuring that even if major powers adopt unilateral approaches, the country can still influence global economic and trade policy.
The focus on diversification is particularly critical in the context of emerging global trade routes and regional integration. The African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) presents opportunities for intra-African trade expansion, reducing dependency on external markets. South Africa’s foreign policy, therefore, must balance global engagement with regional leadership, ensuring that the country remains both an attractive destination for foreign investment and a hub for continental trade.
In conclusion, South Africa’s foreign policy is increasingly strategic, proactive and diversification-oriented. By mitigating risks associated with reliance on single markets, leveraging its reputation as a reliable trading partner, and aligning domestic reforms with international engagement, the country can enhance economic resilience and secure sustainable growth. The coming years will test the government’s ability to translate diplomatic activity into tangible economic outcomes, but the framework for success – diversified trade, regional integration and strategic global engagement – is firmly in place.