By Eamonn Ryan
The following is derived from a SAPICS webinar titled ‘Pre G20 Summit – CRA and SAPICS Risk Briefing’ held on 12 November 2025. The panel consisted of Chris Hattingh, executive director, and Ofentse Donald Davhie, research associate – both of the Centre for Risk Analysis (CRA). This is part one of a five-part series.
China’s influence on global trade has grown dramatically over the past two decades, making it not only a global manufacturing powerhouse but also a central player in global supply chains, including cold chains. Its dominance extends beyond perishables and low-cost production into strategic sectors, such as rare earth minerals, semiconductors and high-tech components essential for electric vehicles, smartphones, and advanced electronics. These materials, while not rare in geological terms, are critical to modern economies, and China’s integrated control over extraction, processing and refinement gives it unique leverage in international trade.
For Africa, China’s role has become even more prominent. The continent’s infrastructure deficit has created a natural opportunity for Chinese investment in railways, ports, highways and energy projects. Countries like Ethiopia, Kenya and Nigeria are now experiencing significant Chinese-led infrastructure development. In South Africa, Chinese investments in construction equipment, passenger vehicles and reefer shipping logistics reflect a broader strategy to integrate the African continent more closely into global trade networks. These efforts are not merely commercial; they are geopolitical in nature. Beijing’s investments secure critical trade routes, build goodwill among governments and establish China as an indispensable partner in the continent’s economic growth.
However, the benefits of Chinese investment are not automatic. African governments must actively engage with Chinese partners to ensure local populations gain skills, jobs and ownership of the projects. Without this, there is a risk that Africa could remain a source of raw materials while the technological and economic benefits accrue primarily to China. Proactive policies, such as local content requirements, skills transfer agreements and joint ventures, are essential to ensure the continent truly benefits from Chinese engagement.
South Africa occupies a particularly important position. Its exports to China are significant, ranging from agricultural products such as citrus, grapes, and other fresh produce to minerals and metals. These agricultural exports increasingly rely on cold chain logistics to maintain freshness and quality during long-haul shipping. Yet much of this trade remains raw material-focused. The challenge for South Africa is to move up the value chain by ensuring that resources – whether minerals or agricultural products – are processed, packaged or ripened domestically before export. By doing so, the country can maximise employment, retain economic value and strengthen its industrial and logistics base, including its cold chain infrastructure.
At the same time, China’s dominance in global supply chains has broader implications. Geopolitical tensions, particularly between China and the US, are shaping global trade rules, tariffs and investment patterns. As global supply chains shift, South Africa must navigate these uncertainties carefully. Diversification of markets, strategic engagement with multiple global partners and building domestic processing and cold storage capabilities are critical strategies for mitigating risk while capturing opportunities.
Moreover, China’s focus on rare earth minerals – essential for high-tech electronics, renewable energy and defense applications – provides a window of opportunity for African countries. South Africa, along with neighbours such as Zimbabwe, Namibia and the Democratic Republic of Congo, possesses significant reserves of these materials. Similarly, the country’s favourable climate and established agricultural sector create opportunities to expand cold chain exports such as citrus, avocados, berries and grapes. By strategically partnering with China while also exploring other markets, South Africa can leverage both its perishable produce and mineral wealth to drive industrialisation, create jobs and strengthen economic resilience.
Yet there is a balance to strike. Overreliance on China could expose South Africa and Africa to political and economic risks if global tensions escalate. Therefore, a multi-pronged approach is essential: maintain strong relations with China while developing alternative trade and investment partners, ensuring that African countries retain agency in how their resources, agricultural outputs and infrastructure are developed.
China’s presence in Africa also raises questions about technology transfer, sustainability and long-term economic planning. African governments are increasingly aware that the way investments are structured today will shape economic trajectories for decades. By focusing on skills development, joint ventures, local beneficiation and cold chain infrastructure, countries can ensure that Chinese investment becomes a foundation for inclusive growth rather than a one-way transfer of wealth.
In conclusion, China’s role in Africa represents a mixture of opportunity and challenge. Its investments, expertise and global integration are invaluable, yet they come with risks that require careful management. For South Africa, the stakes are particularly high: leveraging Chinese engagement while building domestic capabilities in both industrial processing and cold chain logistics, and diversifying trade relationships will be critical in shaping a resilient, prosperous future. The coming decade will test the ability of South African policymakers, businesses and civil society to navigate this complex landscape, balancing ambition with prudence, and opportunity with strategy.