By Eamonn Ryan, from the webcast
The CSIR study, led by Dr Tommy Ryan-Keogh, reveals that climate models have underestimated the decline, threatening global ecosystems and food security. This is Part 2 of a five-part series on the urgent need for better climate models to secure global ecosystems and food security.
The CSIR study’s findings have significant implications for the global cold chain, particularly as they relate to seafood production and distribution. As ocean productivity declines, the availability of seafood, a crucial component of the cold chain, may decrease, putting pressure on supply systems. With reduced catches from fisheries and potential shifts in the location of marine resources, longer transportation times and increased refrigeration demands could strain existing cold chain infrastructure. This could result in higher costs, more food waste and greater food insecurity, especially in regions heavily dependent on fresh seafood. As climate change continues to disrupt marine ecosystems, these challenges underscore the importance of strengthening cold chain logistics to ensure food security globally.
The team also employed a multiple linear regression model to examine environmental factors such as sea surface temperature and nutrient availability that could explain these declines. The results underscored the growing complexity of understanding ocean productivity, as rising sea temperatures are affecting the mechanisms that support marine ecosystems.
The findings of this study have serious implications for global fisheries and food security. As Dr Ryan-Keogh noted, uncertainty in future projections means that decision-makers currently lack the tools to predict how marine ecosystems, particularly fisheries, will fare in the coming decades. This is particularly concerning for developing nations, where seafood is a primary protein source for up to 50% of the population.
The broader impacts of declining ocean productivity extend beyond biodiversity loss. The disruption of marine food chains could negatively affect industries that rely on fisheries for commercial purposes, and this could lead to economic instability in coastal communities worldwide. Policymakers are being urged to act urgently to mitigate CO2 emissions, not only to protect marine life but also to safeguard the food security of millions of people.
The cold chain and climate change
The global cold chain, which is essential for preserving perishable food, including seafood, is particularly vulnerable to these changes in ocean productivity. As fisheries are impacted by climate change, the supply of seafood could diminish, putting pressure on the cold chain infrastructure. With more seafood potentially being sourced from further afield, logistics challenges such as longer transportation times and the need for increased refrigeration capacity may arise, contributing to higher costs and greater food waste. These disruptions could exacerbate food insecurity, especially in regions that depend heavily on fresh seafood.
The research conducted by Dr Ryan-Keogh and his team at CSIR underscores the urgent need for a reevaluation of climate models and a better understanding of how ocean productivity is impacted by rising ocean temperatures. The findings call for stronger climate action and highlight the interconnectedness of ocean health, food security, and the global economy. Policymakers must take immediate action to mitigate CO2 emissions, not only to protect marine ecosystems but to ensure a sustainable future for both our oceans and the millions of people who rely on them.
A groundbreaking study from the Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) has brought to light the concerning gap between climate models and observed ocean productivity. Dr Ryan-Keogh, principal researcher at CSIR, presented the findings of the research published in Nature’s Communications Earth & Environment journal. The study reveals that existing climate models significantly underestimate the global decline in ocean primary production, a vital process for climate regulation and the marine food chain.
The study, which analysed satellite data spanning 26 years (1998-2023), showed a 7-10% decline in ocean primary production globally. This decline, primarily driven by ocean warming, could have severe implications for marine ecosystems and food security. However, even the most advanced climate models failed to accurately capture this trend, suggesting an urgent need for updated models that better reflect the actual relationships between ocean productivity and rising temperatures.