Compiled by Eamonn Ryan from the presentation transcript
At the 2024 GCCA Africa Cold Chain Conference held on August 23 in Cape Town, Martin Cameron, the managing director of Trade Research Advisory at North-West University, shared insights on reducing trade barriers within the framework of the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). This is Part 1 of a three-part series.
Cameron’s presentation focused on trade across the African continent, highlighting “realistic opportunities for the import and export of perishables.” He underscored the critical role of data-driven decision-making, especially in light of the unique challenges and opportunities within Africa’s trade landscape.
He began by addressing the natural tendency of individuals to operate on “automatic mode” when analysing facts and making business decisions. Cameron cautioned that such instinctive thinking can often lead to misjudgments in strategy, urging the audience to adopt a more analytical and deliberate mindset when assessing trade opportunities.
One key point Cameron emphasised was: “Without data, you’re simply offering an opinion.” This statement holds particular weight in the African trade context, where data availability is sometimes inconsistent. To underscore this, he referenced the CEPII BAKI dataset, which consolidates global trade data for over 5 000 products across most economies. The dataset’s strength lies in its reconciliation process, ensuring accuracy by reflecting trade transactions from both exporting and importing countries.
Cameron further highlighted the value of reliable data, stating, “While trade statistics can be challenging, having data that is as close to the truth as possible is far more reliable than gut-based decisions.” He pointed out that roughly 10% of international tariff codes—about 500—are tied to cold chain operations, which are essential for trade in perishables.
Cameron’s analysis revealed that trade in perishables within Africa is significant, with imports and exports in this sector accounting for about 5% of total trade. He noted a steady increase in trade volumes over recent years, although there had been a slight slowdown up until 2022. However, recent data showed signs of a resurgence in trading volumes, suggesting a positive shift in the sector.
Acknowledging the complexities of tracking trade flows, Cameron mentioned that data often lags behind real-time changes. Despite this, he expressed optimism about the recovery of trade volumes, indicating that the trade landscape could continue to evolve favorably.
By advocating for a more analytical approach and encouraging open dialogue, Cameron believes that stakeholders can work together to reduce trade barriers and unlock greater opportunities across Africa.