By Eamonn Ryan
The following article is based on a statement by Pamela Coke-Hamilton, executive director, International Trade Centre (ITC).
The African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) – a key framework shaping trade relations between Africa and the US – officially expired on 30 September 2025, bringing a 25-year era of preferential trade to an uncertain close.
While discussions around a possible renewal continue, the reality as of now is that African exporters have lost duty-free access to the US market, a privilege that has long supported job creation, investment and industrial growth across 32 participating nations.
For a quarter of a century, AGOA served as more than just a trade agreement. It represented a partnership that rewarded reform, encouraged competitiveness, and opened one of the world’s largest consumer markets to African goods. Each country benefited to varying degrees, but collectively, the results were clear: new industries emerged, export volumes grew, and millions of livelihoods were tied to the opportunities AGOA created.
Without it, many of those same industries now face steep challenges. The expiration comes at a time when African economies are already grappling with tighter global trade conditions, from environmental compliance to new tariff barriers. Losing AGOA access risks undermining competitiveness in precisely the sectors that have been the continent’s strongest job creators.
Take Lesotho, for example. Its apparel industry, employing 40 000 workers, exports roughly USD230-million worth of clothing to the US each year. Those goods previously entered the American market duty-free. As of today, they carry a 15% tariff – a relatively modest figure on paper, but one that has already triggered cancelled contracts, job losses and shrinking margins. Competing nations such as Kenya and Eswatini, facing slightly lower tariffs, now have a cost advantage. For small landlocked economies like Lesotho, that difference can be decisive.
South Africa, the continent’s largest beneficiary under AGOA, faces similar disruptions. The country’s citrus industry, which supports around 140 000 farm-level jobs, now encounters a 30% duty on exports to the US – the highest on the continent. In the automotive sector, vehicle exports to the US plunged nearly 40% year-on-year in the second quarter of 2025. If current trends persist, South Africa’s total exports to the US could contract by 17% by 2029, with ripple effects across both African suppliers and American importers.
Across the board, apparel and textiles remain the most exposed sectors. Estimates suggest that tariffs alone could reduce AGOA-country exports to the US by 11% by 2029, but with the programme’s full expiry, that figure could reach 21%. Other labour-intensive sectors – including leather goods, footwear, processed foods, and beverages – are also vulnerable, threatening both jobs and investment.
Yet this moment could also be a catalyst for reinvention. The lapse of AGOA is not simply a loss of preference; it is a test of strategic maturity. It challenges African economies to diversify exports, add value locally and build stronger intra-African trade networks through the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). By shifting from raw material exports to processed goods and regional value chains, Africa can reduce its dependence on a single external partner and position itself for long-term resilience.
What It means for the cold chain
For Africa’s cold chain and perishable goods sectors, AGOA’s expiry introduces an additional layer of complexity. The US market has been an important destination for citrus, berries, avocados, cut flowers and other high-value perishables. With new tariffs and tighter sustainability compliance, exporters now face both higher costs and longer clearance times – a dangerous combination for temperature-sensitive shipments.
Producers may need to reorient logistics networks, seek alternative markets and invest in better cold chain efficiency to offset added costs. This could spur innovation in storage, transport and digital traceability, but in the short term, it will squeeze margins and expose infrastructure gaps. In essence, the cold chain becomes a frontline indicator of how effectively Africa adapts to the new trade reality: agile, regional, and self-reliant.
Reference:
- AGOA is about trade, not aid: International Trade Centre Executive Director on AGOA expiration | ITC