Professor Johann Kirsten on 28 May 2025 facilitated a Creamer Media panel discussion featuring insights from:
- Jabu Mdaki, chief executive of Transnet Port Terminals
- Mmatiou Kalaba, executive director and senior analyst at the Bureau for Food and Agricultural Policy (BFAP)
- Boitshoko Ntshabele, chief executive officer at Citrus Growers Association of Southern Africa
- Wandile Sihlobo, chief economist of the Agricultural Business Chamber of South Africa (Agbiz)
This is part one of a three-part series.
South African agriculture is expertly navigating a shifting global trade landscape, confronting challenges like the EU Green Deal’s stringent regulations while actively pursuing opportunities in BRICS markets.
These improvements are critical in preparing for future growth in agricultural exports. As Sihlobo emphasised, the agricultural sector’s yields are set to increase significantly with continued technological adoption, and the citrus industry alone projects a substantial rise in export volumes. This anticipated surge in volume will place increased pressure on ports, underscoring the importance of Transnet’s long-term planning, including considerations for near-term and long-term capacity.
The discussion also touched upon the vital role of technology in maintaining the cold chain for perishable exports. It was confirmed that monitoring quality and temperature in containers during shipment is “fairly standard” for citrus exports, serving as both a quality control measure and a requirement for phytosanitary compliance. This means that data can be collected throughout the journey, and at the endpoint, a graph can be generated to show temperature variability, ensuring the integrity of the product. This sophisticated monitoring is essential for preserving the quality of fresh produce throughout its journey from farm to distant markets.
Navigating global regulations and new markets
The global trade landscape continues to shift, bringing both challenges and opportunities for South African agriculture. Beyond port optimisation, the sector is contending with new regulatory frameworks like the EU Green Deal and exploring expansion into BRICS markets. A consistent theme across these discussions is the indispensable need for an efficient and reliable cold chain.
Kalaba recognised the EU Green Deal as a significant and complex intervention. While respecting the EU’s right to set its standards, he underscored the substantial cost implications for South African producers. Compliance with existing measures for issues like citrus black spot and false codling moth already incurs billions of rands annually, necessitating increased spraying regimes that directly impact production costs.
Despite these challenges, Kalaba believes South Africa’s experience with stringent EU and US regulations prepares it for adaptation. He sees the Green Deal as part of a “new normal” of volatility and evolving trade policies, demanding “agility and adaptation.” He also noted that South Africa already embraces the core principle of environmental sustainability within the Green Deal.
Sihlobo described the EU Green Deal in its most radical form as largely “dead” due to protests from European farmers against drastic agrochemical reductions. He argued that while sustainable production is valuable, the initial proposals for agrochemical cuts were ill-considered. Sihlobo anticipates a slower implementation pace but expects underlying trends of environmental policies and protectionism, often via non-tariff barriers, to persist. This trend, he suggested, complicates expansion into new markets, including those within BRICS.