By Eamonn Ryan
We are in a La Niña period. This is Part 1 of a two-part article.
The 2024/5 agricultural season’s weather patterns, planting decisions and crop yields have significant implications for the country’s cold chain sector. In recent months, the agricultural landscape has been shaped by the unpredictable weather and challenges stemming from La Niña conditions, making it an essential period for understanding both the short- and long-term effects on food production, transportation and storage systems.
The 2024/5 agricultural season has been marked by a blend of unpredictable rainfall patterns. Initially, the season began with encouraging rains in October, but by November, many regions faced a dry spell that lasted several weeks. This delayed planting for many farmers, particularly in Limpopo, as well as parts of Mpumalanga and Free State. The return of rains in mid-December helped some farmers catch up, but the overall planting season was disrupted. As a result, many areas are seeing late-planted crops that may not hit their optimal growth windows, which brings attention to the importance of effective cold chain management for the preservation and transport of these crops.
Despite these challenges, early crop estimates indicate a relatively optimistic outlook for the 2024/5 harvest. Preliminary data from the Crop Estimate Committee suggests an overall increase in the area planted, with approximately 4.4 million hectares dedicated to summer grains and oilseeds—up 0.3% from the previous season. Notable shifts within crop areas include a slight increase in maize, particularly in white maize (2.6 million hectares, up 0.4%) driven by higher prices due to tight regional supplies with Zambia and Zimbabwe having lost half their crop. Other crops, like sunflower and dry beans, have also seen increases in planting areas, while crops like sorghum and soybeans have seen slight declines.
The late planting, however, raises concerns about the potential impact on yield outcomes, particularly with the growing season potentially extending into later months. For instance, in some areas, crops that were planted later in December and January might experience a delayed pollination period into March, which means that any delays in rains could significantly affect yields.
More specific production statistics will be available at the end of February. Historical average production figures suggest South Africa will have a fairly good agricultural season – a rebound from the decline seen last year. This should be favourable for food-price inflation for the remainder of the year.
For the cold chain industry, these planting and crop conditions signal potential implications. As more crops are planted late or face irregular growing cycles, cold storage and refrigerated transportation will play an even more critical role in ensuring that produce reaches markets in good condition.
Reference: https://www.sagis.org.za/cec_reports_2025.html