The following is derived from a Business Day podcast by Wandile Sihlobo on 1 March, with cold chain commentary by Cold Link Africa
South Africa’s agricultural sector is poised for a significant recovery in 2025 following a challenging 2024 season. Despite a 21% decline in grain and oilseed production last year due to a mid-summer drought and foot-and-mouth disease outbreaks in the Eastern Cape and KwaZulu-Natal (KZN), the industry is now benefiting from improved weather conditions and proactive disease management.
Improved planting conditions and harvest projections
The 2025 season has seen 4.4 million hectares planted, maintaining stability from the previous year. Key summer crops include maize, soybeans, sunflower, groundnuts, and dry beans. Beneficial rainfall from the La Niña weather pattern, although delayed in some areas, ultimately provided sufficient moisture for planting.
In February, the Crop Estimates Committee released its first production estimates for the 2024/25 season, forecasting a total summer grain and oilseed harvest of 17.2 million tons—an 11% increase from the previous year. The breakdown includes:
- Maize: 13.9 million tons (up 8%)
- White maize: 7.4 million tons (up 22%)
- Yellow maize: 6.5 million tons (down 4%)
- Soybeans: 2.3 million tons (up 26%)
- Sunflower seeds: 720 000 tons (up 14%)
- Groundnuts: 65 000 tons (up 26%)
- Sorghum: 129 000 tons (up 32%)
- Dry beans: 75 000 tons (up 50%)
Analysts caution that these figures partly reflect a rebound from 2024’s poor season. However, recent heavy rainfall, not fully factored into the February estimates, could lead to further upward revisions.